Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA forecasts for the Yankees were accurate last year.
After a terrible 2023 season, the Yankees were able to regain their position as the top team in the American League East with 94.4 wins according to PECOTA’s simulations.
94 games were won by the Yankees. The division was won by them.
The Yankees will need to successfully defend their division championship but slide in the victory column if PECOTA is correct in 2025.
The Yankees will win the division and record the greatest victory total in the American League with 89.7 games, according to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections for the 2025 season, which were released on Monday. The Orioles finished second in the AL East with 89.2 victories, just a hair behind the Yankees.
According to PECOTA, the Los Angeles Dodgers (103.8), Atlanta Braves (92.4), and Chicago Cubs (90.6) are the only three teams predicted to win more games than the Yankees this season.
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Although the Yankees suffered a major blow with Juan Soto’s departure, they have successfully addressed other areas of their squad and distributed their offseason money this winter. In exchange for center fielder Cody Bellinger and reliever Devin Williams, the Yankees acquired first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and pitcher Max Fried.
These estimates could be revised. With just one week left before spring training starts, the Yankees’ victory total will undoubtedly increase if they acquire a third baseman and sign a left-handed reliever, two of their most pressing needs.
According to PECOTA, the Yankees have the best chance in the American League to win a World Series this year, with a 9.0 percent chance. Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers had the best odds in Major League Baseball (20.7 percent), followed by the Braves (9.7 percent).
You may contact Max Goodman at [email protected].
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