New York’s Staten Island. Some people may start to question whether or not they will encounter seasonal weather conditions as winter approaches. La Ni an is one of many elements that ultimately influence the weather.
However, how does La Ni an impact winter weather and what is it?
According to the National Weather Service, the El Ni o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is a recurrent climatic trend related to variations in the water temperatures out in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
The surface waters over a portion of the Pacific Ocean warm or cool over time. The weather service refers to that trend of fluctuating ocean temperature as the ENSO cycle.
When none of the ENSO cycle’s severe phases—El Ni o or La Ni a—dominate, the situation is said to be ENSO-neutral. The Pacific Ocean’s sea surface temperatures are close to normal during this time.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), La Ni an is a cold occurrence that occurs when trade winds are strengthened and push warm water into Asia, which cools Pacific seas off the coast of the United States. This is in contrast to El Ni o.
Both the changeable Pacific jet stream and the polar jet stream are typically affected during a moderate to strong La Ni a. A swift, slender air movement that circles the earth and affects surface weather patterns is known as the jet stream.
Snowfall in January and March during all 22 La Nia winters in 1959–2024 versus the average for all January–March seasons in 1991–2020. Since the long-term snowfall tendency for this time period has been eliminated, the maps more accurately depict La Nia’s impact alone. Michelle L. Heureux’s study and ERA5 reanalysis data served as the basis for the NOAA Climate.gov map. (NOAA Climate.gov, courtesy)(NOAA Climate.gov, courtesy)
According to the weather service, the polar jet stream moves further south in a wave-like pattern when La Niña is in control in the late fall to early spring. This, together with the fluctuating Pacific jet stream, affects the winter weather patterns.
The southern United States has warmer temperatures and less precipitation than usual during La Niña. According to the weather agency, people in the northern United States, on the other hand, report lower temperatures.
Despite recent forecasts, ENSO-neutral conditions have lasted through the summer and into the fall.
Experts have been predicting that La Niña will appear and become dominant this fall for months. That hasn’t happened yet, though, and outlooks have been revised to reflect that.
The percentage chance of El Ni o, La Ni a, or ENSO neutral conditions for various three-month periods is displayed in a graphic from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is the source of this information.
The chances of emergence are little lower now than they were a few months ago. La Ni a had a 66% chance of appearing by the end of November in September, but by October, that number had fallen to 60%.
La Ni has a 57% chance of appearing by the end of December, according to the weather service’s Climate Prediction Center.
La Ni, which is predicted to develop this winter, is not anticipated to have the same impact as other weather phenomena in previous years.
It is anticipated that La Nia will only exist from January to March 2025, if and when it occurs. According to the Climate Prediction Center, there would be reduced chance of traditional weather effects from this brief and weak storm.
Even though La Niña might still have an impact on the forecast, it doesn’t seem like it will have as much of an impact as it would if it were more significant.
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