Is Punxsutawney Phil a fraud? Scientists throw shade as they rank Groundhog Day forecasters by accuracy

New York’s Staten Island. Every year, large people congregate to watch if the local animal forecaster can foretell whether spring would arrive early. Even though Punxsutawney Phil is widely regarded as the most famous forecaster, a top U.S. weather office might devalue the groundhog.

To find the most accurate animal weather seer, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information examined the competitive field of 19 animal weather seers.

To the astonishment of some, Charles G. Hogg, also known as Staten Island Chuck, topped NOAA’s list, solidifying his position as the furry forecaster. Chuck, who lives at the Staten Island Zoo in West Brighton, has an incredible accuracy percentage of 85%, according to the rating.

Staten Island Chuck is seen at the Staten Island Zoo in this file photo taken on February 2, 2024. (Jan Somma-Hammel/Staten Island Advance)(Jan Somma-Hammel/Staten Island Advance)

Chuck is not far behind General Beauregard Lee, a Georgia groundhog that has an astounding 80% accuracy rate, according to the ranking.

Remarkably, a statue of a Wyoming prairie dog named Lander Lil won the bronze award. Observers can determine how long it will be until spring arrives by examining the statue’s shadow at sunrise.

Punxsutawney Phil, who is frequently regarded as Chuck’s fiercest opponent, finished in 17th place with a miserable accuracy percentage of just 35%, meaning he was unable to place in the top 15.

These weather-predicting groundhogs and animal substitutes must have been active as of February 2, 2024, and have been making predictions for at least 20 years in order to be eligible for the ranking.

Final ranking of most accurate animal prognosticators by the NOAA s National Centers for Environmental Information:

Rank	Name	Species	State	Accuracy
1	Staten Island Chuck	Groundhog	N.Y.	85%
2	General Beauregard Lee	Groundhog	G.A.	80%
3	Lander Lil	Prairie dog statue	W.Y.	75%
4	Concord Charlie	Never seen (presumed groundhog)	W.V.	65%
5	Gertie the Groundhog	Groundhog	I.L.	65%
6	Jimmy the Groundhog	Groundhog	W.I.	60%
7	Woodstock Willie	Groundhog	I.L.	60%
8	Buckeye Chuck	Groundhog	O.H.	55%
9	French Creek Freddie	Groundhog	W.V.	55%
10	Malverne Mel	Groundhog	N.Y.	55%
11	Octoraro Orphie	Groundhog	P.A.	52.63%
12	Dunkirk Dave	Groundhog	N.Y.	50%
13	Holtsville Hal	Groundhog	N.Y.	50%
14	Poor Richard	Taxidermied groundhog	P.A.	50%
15	Uni the Groundhog	Taxidermied groundhog	P.A.	47.37%
16	Schnogadahl Sammi	Taxidermied groundhog	P.A.	38.89%
17	Punxsutawney Phil	Groundhog	P.A.	35%
18	Woodie the Woodchuck	Groundhog	M.I.	35%
19	Mojave Max	Tortoise	N.V.	25%

NOAA claims that several of the contenders failed to forecast every year for the previous 20 years.

The Staten Island Zoo will have its Groundhog Day ceremony on Sunday morning if you would want to watch the top weather-guessing groundhog give his yearly forecast. In addition to distinguished guests including community leaders and local politicians, Susan E. Wagner High School students will be present to assist in tracking Chuck’s forecast throughout the season.