N.Y. weather: Latest February outlook reveals shift in winter temperatures

New York’s Staten Island. The waves of extreme cold that marked much of January should subside somewhat in the upcoming month.

On Friday, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service issued its most recent monthly forecast for February, maintaining its confidence in high temperatures for New York.

According to the revised prediction for January 31, there is a 40–50% chance that temperatures in New York City will be above average. But although the original forecast from mid-January only provided the city this kind of chance, the odds now favor above-average temperatures for the entire state.

These similar odds of leaning over average are now found in places like the Hudson Valley and a large portion of the Southern Tier. With a 33–40% chance, residents of Western New York and the majority of the North Country have a slightly lower chance of experiencing such temperatures.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data from 1991 to 2020 shows that the average temperature in the Central Park region in February is 35.9 degrees Fahrenheit.

In contrast to January, when over half of the days had lows and highs below the daily average, this prognosis for primarily above-normal temperatures represents a change in the weather trend.

Elevated precipitation amounts on the way

The Climate Prediction Center has published its monthly precipitation outlook in addition to its temperature outlook.

New York City saw the second-driest January on record last month, setting new records. The five boroughs only received 0.61 inches of rain throughout the course of the month, which is second only to January 1981, when a pitiful 0.58 inches of precipitation fell.

Much of New York is predicted to see above-average precipitation amounts in February 2025, according to a monthly projection from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. (Source: Climate Prediction Center, National Weather Service)(Source: National Weather Service)

There are no early signs this month that February will be as dry as January and that the city will experience extreme dryness. According to the precipitation projection, the likelihood of below- or above-average precipitation quantities is equal for Long Island and New York City.

Throughout the entire state, it is not the case. In fact, precipitation levels in the upcoming weeks are expected to be above average for the majority of upstate New York.

There is a 33–40% possibility that precipitation levels will be above average across the majority of the Hudson Valley and Capital Region. With a 40–50% chance, those odds are more favorable for such conditions further north and west in places like Central New York and the Finger Lakes.

Nonetheless, there is a 50–60% possibility that precipitation levels will be above average in a small portion of New York state bordering Lake Erie in Western New York.

According to NOAA statistics from 1991 to 2020, the Central Park region experiences the lowest total precipitation quantity of the year in February, with an average of 3.19 inches.