N.Y. weather: Shift in January forecast shows change in NYC temperature, precipitation outlook

New York’s Staten Island. In a bit of a reversal, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service is forecasting a wetter and cooler January than usual in New York City.

On December 19, 2024, the Climate Prediction Center issued a temperature forecast for the first month of 2025. According to that first prognosis, there was a 33–40% chance that the entire state of New York will see warmer-than-normal temperatures, which is categorized as leaning over average.

Less than two weeks later, on Tuesday, the Climate Prediction Center released an updated monthly outlook, indicating that New York City’s temperatures are now slightly below average for the month.

The city is located on the outskirts of a large region of the nation that is expected to see below-normal temperatures this month, according to the most recent prediction. New York City is 33–40% likely to suffer below-normal temperatures during the next few weeks, while much of West Virginia and portions of eastern Tennessee are 50–60% likely to see below-normal temperatures.

Temperatures in the majority of the rest of New York are now equally likely to be above or below average.

The average temperature in January in New York City is typically around 33.7 degrees Fahrenheit, based on data from the Central Park of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) from 1991 to 2020. The average high temperature is often 39.5 degrees, and the average low temperature is a chilly 27.9 degrees.

Much of New York, including New York City, is expected to see above-average precipitation levels in January 2025, according to a projection from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. (Source: Climate Prediction Center, National Weather Service)(Source: National Weather Service)

The Climate Prediction Center changed its precipitation outlook in tandem to its temperature projection.

In mid-December, the prediction indicated that the chances of precipitation exceeding the historical average were equal throughout the vast majority of the state. All of northern and eastern New York, from the Canadian border to New York City, is now predicted to have above-average precipitation quantities this January, which means it is leaning over normal, according to the updated prediction.

According to NOAA Central Park statistics from 1991 to 2020, the first month of the year typically brings 3.64 inches of precipitation to New York City.

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