New studies show that Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in five key battleground states with less than six months until the election. Three polls from the New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College put the former president ahead in Arizona (seven points), Michigan (seven points), Georgia (ten points), and Nevada (12 points). Just two points separated Biden and the other candidate in Wisconsin.
Aside from Trump’s in Georgia and Nevada, all of the other leads were within the acceptable range. As the poll spread through politics, the Biden team released a statement from Democratic pollster Geoff Garin. The only thing that has been consistent in recent studies is inconsistency, Garin said.
“These results should be compared to the more than 30 polls that show Biden ahead and growing. That’s why it’s wrong to draw broad conclusions about the race from the results of one poll.” Trump is on trial in New York City on 34 criminal charges related to paying an adult film star hush money to lie about having an affair.
That’s a trial for meddling in an election. In Georgia, the former president is also facing four federal charges and ten state charges for trying to rig an election, as well as 40 federal charges for keeping secret information.
The deadly attack on Congress on January 6, 2021, by a crowd that Trump had told to “fight like hell” for his cause, was the last part of Trump’s plan to reverse Biden’s clear victory in 2020.
Nine deaths, including police officers who killed themselves, have been linked to the riot. More than 1,200 people have been arrested, and hundreds have been found guilty and sent to jail, some for seditious plots.
The Times said that “a yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black, and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition.” This is because many voters think that Biden, who is 81 years old, is too old for a second term, even though Trump is only four years younger.
Twenty percent of Black voters said they would vote for Trump. If that number holds, it would be the largest percentage of Black voters who say they would vote for a Republican since the civil rights movement.
The results from people who said they were likely to vote were better for Biden. The current president was ahead in Michigan and just behind in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Biden would likely stay in the White House if he won those three states in November.
The third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wanted to be able to run for office in all 50 states, even though he had said he had a worm in his brain that caused memory problems. He got about 10% of the vote, which was about the same as Trump and Biden.
The results haven’t changed much since the last set of Times/Siena polls in November in battleground states, the Times said, naming things that might be seen as helping Biden, such as the stock market rising 25%, the start of Trump’s criminal trials, and Biden’s campaign spending a lot of money in battleground states.
But people who spoke to the paper said they chose Trump over Biden because they were worried about the cost of living and were unhappy with the way things were going in politics and society.
That’s right, “nearly 70% of voters say that the country’s political and economic systems need major changes—or even to be torn down entirely,” the paper said. The right to have an abortion is also a major topic in the election. Trump has braggingly said that he put three right-wingers on the US Supreme Court. This led to the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022, which took away government abortion rights.
Since abortion rights have been on the ballot, Democrats have won many times, even in places that are run by Republicans. A large majority of people (64%) in the new polls said abortion should always or mostly be allowed. This is also the opinion of 44% of Trump voters. Also, the polls showed that voters by 11 points want Biden to handle problems related to abortion rights. But almost twenty percent of those who answered thought Biden was more to blame than Trump for Roe v. Wade’s downfall.
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“Many voters aren’t paying close attention to the election and haven’t started making up their minds yet,” Garin said. “Today’s poll shows that this is also the case.” These voters will decide this election, and only the Biden team is working to win them over.
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